Mark Twain famously ranked statistics as the most pernicious form of lying, the other two being regular lies and "damn lies." Yet survey and census data collected over the past couple of decades regarding the plight of rural communities tells a remarkably consistent story.

While most rural residents are happy enough with their lot, those living in the smallest towns think themselves powerless in the face of change, according to the annual Nebraska Rural Poll. The tally of those satisfied with dining options fell from 59 percent in 1997 to 47 percent a year ago. Retail shopping satisfaction numbers plummeted from 53 to 41 over the same period. In 1990 Omaha and Lincoln combined for 57 percent of the state's total taxable retail sales, compared to 64 percent fifteen years later. Meanwhile small towns have experienced steady declines in population and business.

"It's hard somedays not to be depressed when you look at the trends," says Sandy Scofield, Director of the University of Nebraska's Rural Initiative.

The shrinking population is generally considered the most devastating factor in the apparent demise of small town America. "We lost a lot during the 1980's farm and oil bust," explains Kimball's Mayor, James Schnell. "That pushed out a lot of people from my generation."

When they leave, of course, they take retail sales, property taxes, labor, ideas, even the potential for school age children with them.

"One could generalize and say the issues [affecting small towns] are more complex than they've ever been," agrees Brad Lubben, assistant professor and policy specialist at UNL. "You can't focus on one problem without repercussions in other areas."

During the oft-cited crisis three decades ago, several experts cast doubt on the future survival of many rural communities because of their size--more specifically their lack thereof--and isolation from urban centers. Since then, however, those who study the issue have become guardedly optimistic.

Indeed, when Milan Wall of the Heartland Center for Leadership Development published his study "Factors in Rural Community Survival" back in 1999, the experts had settled on leadership as the key factor in a town's success.

"It's easy to point out the problems," says John Hoehne of Twin Cities Development in Scottsbluff-Gering. "You need the leadership of a community to be proactive and to be champions for the city."

In other words, adds Schnell, "preach, preach, preach."

Being part cheerleader, part economic development booster may help turn attitudes around, causing locals to spurn the drive to Sidney, Scottsbluff or Cheyenne in favor of a quick jaunt to Bemis Drugs or Hometown Hardware. But successful economic development is not that simple. In fact, the questions facing community leaders--meaning not only elected officials, but also the heads at banks, schools, businesses and groups--can be daunting.

"What fundamental services are really needed?" Lubben asks. There's no way to pay for everything we think we need, so what do we need and what do we need to pay for?"

Kimball is engaged in several potentially lucrative projects, including the rail spur, a highway bypass, increased grain storage, and possibly a drag strip. The leadership doesn't always agree on potential outcomes, however.

Some disagreement and a few mistakes are fine, says Gary Person, Sidney's City Manager and Economic Development Director. "Obviously you'll skin your nose a time or two, but we learned from those experiences."

Person reiterates the need for level-headed research and a clear understanding of every issue and purpose. Success will ultimately require the buy in of local residents, he concludes, so leadership in this case "takes good planning and a vision.

"You must realize what your strengths are and invest as a community."

In Kimball's favor, there are active leaders beyond merely the city and county government level, including a chamber of commerce and the less formal organization Kimball Economic Growth and Sustainability, otherwise known as KEGS, as well as the citizens anxious for development in one form or another.

Still, leadership is a nagging issue, whether one agrees with the efforts of the town's current crop or not.

"The biggest threat to a vibrant community is not passing on leadership to the next generation," Lubben explains.

And that is a real problem, says Rod Horton of the chamber of commerce.

"There aren't a lot of people or resources"--a given, after the 80s carnage and the more recent economic woes--"and there's no active program to train leaders."

Still, the experts insist that local leadership, behaving properly, local initiatives driven by the community and local economic development strategies well thought out can overcome whatever problems the outside world throws at small towns.

Leadership, in other words, can put statistical trends back in their place, behind "lies" and "damn lies."